ProbabilityEA Review
The guy behind this forex robot is Michael Schofield. He claims that the latest version of ProbabilityEA, version 7.1.2, is capable of analyzing market trends and repeatedly predicting the direction of the market by making use of what is called a “pyramid technique”, which enables the robot to consistently capitalize on profitable trades.
ProbabilityEA 7.1.2 Claims
- The vendor supplies a number of test results as support of his claims. An account which ran from Jan. 2009 to November 2010 produced ROI of 1356% and one which has been traded since November 2010 has produced 8% ROI in November 2010, 4% in December 2010 and 4% January 2011 (compounded). He also shows a graph which has been updated on the 15th of April 2011, showing a monthly gain of 13.29%, with a max. drawdown of 10.77%.
- A video is also attached, which shows how an older version, ProbabilityEA 7.0, turned $10,000 into $37,647 in just 3 months – 276.47% ROI in three months.
- However, there’s no proof whatsoever that these are live accounts trading in real money, so one can assume with certainty that one is a forward test and the rest all backtests in demo accounts.
The philosophy behind ProbabilityEA 7.1.2
The philosophy behind this EA is that although it’s a well-established fact that trading with the trend produces the highest probability of profits, it is also a fact that the trend can turn at any second. To counter this problem the trader will have to place consecutive smaller orders as the trend develops in your favor, in stead of placing a large order at the beginning. The advantage of this approach is excellent risk management and good protection of capital: If the market turns against you, your losses are restricted to a relatively small amount – which would not be the case had you placed a single large order when you opened the trade. So, as the trend develops in your favor, more orders are placed and your profit keeps on growing.
Way to trade with ProbabilityEA
- Determine the trend and always trade in that direction.
- Rather than take one large position, take a small position and then add more small positions incrementally every 5-20 pips.
- If the trend changes, start to close trades.
- Close all trades at a preset target level and start over.
From this it seems like ProbabilityEA does not work like other forex robots, which does everything automatically. It seems like it merely indicates when to trade, but you have to do the entries end exits yourself. There’s no reference to stoplosses, profit targets or what currencies can be used.
The ProbabilityEA 7.1.2 package
For $75 you get:
- The right to download the robot. The robot runs on the Metatrader 4 platform, which can be downloaded for free.
- User manual
- E-mail-support given by Michael Schofield himself
- There’s no mention of a money-back guarantee, what is common in this industry.
My Probability EA Test Result and Conclusion
I tested Probability EA for many months and while it performed fairly ok for a while it eventually gave back all the profit it made and ended in red figures. In the last test I did it made a loss of -20% in one month. See my testing stats and account statement on the Forex Robot Testing page. Based on my own test results I wouldn’t recommend this product and would definitely suggest that you focus on one of the robots on my Top 5 list or subscribe to my weekly robot testing newsletter.
